Each election carries political risks; however, only a few can influence global developments to such an extent as the Presidential vote in the United States of America. With Donald Trump's election as the 47th American president, the worldawaits his future steps. Let’s take a closer look at the impact Mr Trump’s election on the CEE region, particularly the members of the Visegrad Group.
Looking from a broader perspective, two topics are shared among the V4 countries, which are strongly dependent on the decisions made in Washington, D.C. and could have a long-lasting influence on the region. Firstly, the security question connected with the Russian war against Ukraine. Donald Trump's dedication to ending the conflict was already heavily underlined during his presidential campaign. However, the exact way he wants to end the conflict is unknown. Its resolution will then establish a long-term security paradigm in which not just the V4 countries but Europe as a whole will have to exist. Additionally, Trump's stances towards NATO and his disapproval of the members who, according to him, arenot spending enough on collective security, will influence his attitudes towards the V4, as only Poland and Czechia are meeting the collective goal of contributing 2% of the GDP to the alliance.
Secondly, the economic questions, especially those regarding trade. The returning President-elect and his renown preference for coercive economic tools such as negative sanctions and tariffs could harm the region. During his first presidency, Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminium imported from the European Union, negatively influencing all of its members, the V4 included. His willingness to continue with aggressive trade policies during his second term was already confirmed; however, the exact policies are still unknown, leaving the states guessing.
But moving on from the V4 as a block, how might Donald Trump’s election affect its individual members?
Starting with Hungary, the country's stances on the result of the US presidential electionwere clearly stated by its Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. Orbán, bet all his country's metaphorical forints on the victory of Donald Trump.. The two developed a close relationship during Trump's first term in office and Orbán is not shy about sharing his affection for Trump's populist rhetoric and political style.
Further north, Slovakia, with its Prime Minister Robert Fico , seems to be slowly but surely following the Hungarian path. The populist style of Fico is shadowing the political practices favoured by both Viktor Orbán as well as Donald Trump. The tendencies of the Slovak government to suppress the opposition and free press look like they are straight out of Budapest . Furthermore, after the assassination attempt on Donald Trump in July 2024, Robert Fico used it as a parallel to his own attack, concluding that their respective oppositions were trying to violently remove them both from office. With the election of Donald Trump as the US president, the risk of the Slovak and Hungarian PMs stepping up their populist, right-wing leaning tendencies is likely to grow as they feel more comfortable knowing that they have a backing in Washington.
The Polish position towards the US election and its result was outlined before the results were known by its Prime Minister, Donald Tusk. In Tusk's opinion, it did not matter who won the elections, as Poland and the EU have to learn how to take care of themselves again. This worldview partially collides with Donald Trump's ideas about the security paradigm on the old continent, as he wants to concentrate American attention on the Indo-Pacific region.
Additionally, Poland currently spends more than 4% of its GDP on defence, the highest percentage in the V4, and is in the process of modernising its military, often with equipment from the United States. This could positively influence the stances of Donald Trump towards Warsaw. Furthermore, the introduction of the new president-elect into the office will overlap with the Polish presidency of the Council of the European Union. Poland will thus have the option to set up the discussed agenda between the EU and the US and influence the direction of the Trans-Atlantic relationship.
The last remaining of the four, Czechia, with the current government led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala could experience the influence of Trump's personality on local politics first-hand. The Czech opposition bench is is currently home to the leader of the ANO movement, Andrej Babisšwho is eagerly awaiting the upcoming general elections scheduled for October 2025, as the polls show in steadily leading with over 30% of the vote. Fiala’s lack of popularity with the public and recent tensions inside the government coalition are leading many to doubt his ability to win the next elections. With Trump in the White House, populism in the CEE is likely to be on the rise, allowing Babiš to harvest possible additional popular support. Furthermore, the head of ANO is rather close to both Fico and Orbán, as their political styles all work in a similar framework. The alliance between him and Orbán was further strengthened shortly after the European elections, as they are now both part of the newly created Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament.
November 5 marked an important historical moment, with high stakes and long-term consequences. The questions connected to security, trade and political stability will define the relationship between Washington, D.C. and the V4 countries for another four years. However, no one knows exactly what policies to expect from Donald Trump during his second term, thus leaving the V4 guessing until the last moment.
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